Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
22.85
−32.8%
16%
27.02
−20.5%
25%
29.11
−14.3%
50% (median)
33.71
−0.8%
75%
38.81
+14.2%
84%
41.51
+22.2%
95%
48.07
+41.5%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (35.68)
39%
Up 10% or more (37.38)
31%
Down 5% or more (32.28)
42%
Down 10% or more (30.58)
33%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 1.0× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.