Z
Zillow Group, Inc.Open27.57−0.27 −0.99%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 12:41 ET · 15m delay
Open
27.89
Prev close
27.84
Day range
27.5028.24
52-week range
26.6779.40
Volume
1.86M0.48×
Mkt cap
6.20B
P/E ttm
119.85
Fwd P/E
9.95
EPS ttm
0.2300
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−65.28%
Z market-implied price distribution
Z Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 66.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 27.57
Expected price
27.91
forward 27.88
68% range
22–33
−19.5% / +21.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 18.77 | −31.9% |
| 16% | 22.18 | −19.5% |
| 25% | 23.77 | −13.7% |
| 50% (median) | 27.26 | −1.1% |
| 75% | 31.20 | +13.2% |
| 84% | 33.38 | +21.1% |
| 95% | 39.04 | +41.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (28.94) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (30.32) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (26.19) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (24.81) | 32% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 32%, 1.0× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.