YOU
Clear Secure, Inc.Open42.49+0.03 +0.07%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
42.47
Prev close
42.46
Day range
42.1342.85
52-week range
29.9769.07
Volume
89.64K0.05×
Mkt cap
4.37B
P/E ttm
28.52
Fwd P/E
16.31
EPS ttm
1.49
Div yield
1.35%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−38.48%
YOU market-implied price distribution
YOU Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 61.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 42.49
Expected price
42.75
forward 42.77
68% range
34–51
−19.0% / +19.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.86 | −32.1% |
| 16% | 34.43 | −19.0% |
| 25% | 36.89 | −13.2% |
| 50% (median) | 42.05 | −1.0% |
| 75% | 47.68 | +12.2% |
| 84% | 50.73 | +19.4% |
| 95% | 58.45 | +37.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (44.61) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (46.74) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (40.37) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (38.24) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 1.0× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.