XYZ
Block, Inc.Pre-market76.82−0.42 −0.54%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:04 ET · 20m delayPre-market 77.00 +0.23%
Open
76.88
Prev close
77.24
Day range
76.4177.86
52-week range
48.2186.92
Volume
5.02M1.11×
Mkt cap
46.15B
P/E ttm
137.18
Fwd P/E
14.77
EPS ttm
0.5600
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−11.62%
XYZ market-implied price distribution
XYZ Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 59.6%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 76.82
Expected price
77.07
forward 77.09
68% range
65–89
−15.7% / +16.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 57.48 | −25.2% |
| 16% | 64.78 | −15.7% |
| 25% | 68.48 | −10.9% |
| 50% (median) | 76.57 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 85.10 | +10.8% |
| 84% | 89.33 | +16.3% |
| 95% | 98.33 | +28.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (80.66) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (84.50) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (72.98) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (69.14) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 0.9× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.