XPO
XPO, Inc.After hours181.15+0.63 +0.35%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 181.15 +0.04%
Open
180.83
Prev close
180.52
Day range
176.94182.69
52-week range
121.48232.05
Volume
663.96K0.65×
Mkt cap
21.21B
P/E ttm
53.28
Fwd P/E
27.68
EPS ttm
3.40
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−21.93%
XPO market-implied price distribution
XPO Price at Expiry
29 OTM quotes · ATM IV 46.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 181.15
Expected price
182.55
forward 181.56
68% range
157–204
−13.4% / +12.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 124.73 | −31.1% |
| 16% | 156.89 | −13.4% |
| 25% | 165.19 | −8.8% |
| 50% (median) | 179.98 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 195.36 | +7.8% |
| 84% | 204.39 | +12.8% |
| 95% | 237.38 | +31.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (190.21) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (199.27) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (172.09) | 36% |
| Down 10% or more (163.04) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 0.9× the 26% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.