XP
XP Inc.After hours31.38−1.22 −3.74%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 31.38 0.00%
Open
31.67
Prev close
32.60
Day range
31.2532.33
52-week range
14.8032.73
Volume
10.24M1.44×
Mkt cap
15.92B
P/E ttm
16.43
Fwd P/E
12.60
EPS ttm
1.91
Div yield
0.61%
Earnings
Aug 17, 2026
From 52w high
−4.12%
XP market-implied price distribution
XP Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 89.4%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
57%
spot 31.38
Expected price
31.49
forward 31.49
68% range
22–38
−29.6% / +21.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 18.56 | −40.9% |
| 16% | 22.08 | −29.6% |
| 25% | 25.24 | −19.6% |
| 50% (median) | 33.51 | +6.8% |
| 75% | 35.59 | +13.4% |
| 84% | 38.14 | +21.6% |
| 95% | 43.91 | +39.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (32.95) | 52% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (34.52) | 46% |
| Down 5% or more (29.81) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (28.24) | 33% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 0.9× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.