XNCR
Xencor, Inc.After hours23.52−1.52 −6.07%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 23.50 −0.09%
Open
25.00
Prev close
25.04
Day range
23.3325.16
52-week range
10.3830.61
Volume
2.43M1.83×
Mkt cap
1.75B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-6.62
EPS ttm
-2.16
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−23.16%
XNCR market-implied price distribution
XNCR Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 134.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 23.52
Expected price
22.70
forward 23.86
68% range
8–32
−66.6% / +35.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.44 | −81.1% |
| 16% | 7.86 | −66.6% |
| 25% | 14.61 | −37.9% |
| 50% (median) | 22.78 | −3.1% |
| 75% | 28.48 | +21.1% |
| 84% | 31.80 | +35.2% |
| 95% | 45.64 | +94.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (24.70) | 41% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (25.87) | 35% |
| Down 5% or more (22.34) | 48% |
| Down 10% or more (21.17) | 43% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 43%, 0.9× the 48% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.