Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
231.91
−30.1%
16%
283.74
−14.4%
25%
301.44
−9.1%
50% (median)
332.63
+0.3%
75%
362.23
+9.2%
84%
377.37
+13.8%
95%
416.07
+25.5%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (348.22)
36%
Up 10% or more (364.80)
23%
Down 5% or more (315.06)
35%
Down 10% or more (298.48)
23%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 23%, 0.9× the 24% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.