WTC.AX
WISETECH FPO [WTC]ClosedWTC.AX discounted cash flow valuation
WTC.AX Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 28.6% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 18.3% in this model.
Model: 18.3% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 9.58% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | AUD 3.33B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (59% of EV) | AUD 4.88B |
| Enterprise value | AUD 8.20B |
| + Cash & investments | AUD 491.47M |
| − Total debt | −AUD 3.19B |
| Equity value | AUD 5.50B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 336.35M |
| Value per share | AUD 16.36 |
| Market cap | AUD 11.28B |
USD statements converted at 1.426 AUD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.20 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 11.24% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 28.3% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 22.1% |
| WACC | 9.58% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.58% | 22.45 | 24.65 | 27.28 | 30.49 | 34.48 |
| 8.58% | 17.62 | 19.14 | 20.91 | 22.99 | 25.48 |
| 9.58% | 14.02 | 15.11 | 16.36 | 17.79 | 19.46 |
| 10.58% | 11.23 | 12.04 | 12.96 | 13.99 | 15.17 |
| 11.58% | 9.01 | 9.63 | 10.32 | 11.09 | 11.96 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2024) | — | AUD 238.89M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 18.3% | AUD 282.61M | 0.913 | AUD 257.90M |
| Year 2 | 18.3% | AUD 334.32M | 0.833 | AUD 278.42M |
| Year 3 | 18.3% | AUD 395.51M | 0.760 | AUD 300.58M |
| Year 4 | 18.3% | AUD 467.88M | 0.694 | AUD 324.50M |
| Year 5 | 18.3% | AUD 553.51M | 0.633 | AUD 350.32M |
| Year 6 | 15.1% | AUD 637.31M | 0.578 | AUD 368.10M |
| Year 7 | 12.0% | AUD 713.66M | 0.527 | AUD 376.16M |
| Year 8 | 8.8% | AUD 776.60M | 0.481 | AUD 373.55M |
| Year 9 | 5.7% | AUD 820.56M | 0.439 | AUD 360.19M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | AUD 841.07M | 0.401 | AUD 336.91M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.