Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
10.49
−39.6%
16%
13.70
−21.1%
25%
14.83
−14.6%
50% (median)
17.05
−1.9%
75%
19.46
+12.1%
84%
20.87
+20.1%
95%
25.41
+46.3%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (18.24)
36%
Up 10% or more (19.11)
28%
Down 5% or more (16.50)
43%
Down 10% or more (15.63)
33%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 0.9× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.