Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
48.01
−24.0%
16%
55.40
−12.3%
25%
58.17
−7.9%
50% (median)
62.96
−0.3%
75%
67.44
+6.8%
84%
69.72
+10.4%
95%
75.71
+19.9%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (66.29)
31%
Up 10% or more (69.44)
17%
Down 5% or more (59.97)
33%
Down 10% or more (56.82)
20%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.0× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.