WMS
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.Open126.70+0.77 +0.61%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
126.96
Prev close
125.93
Day range
124.92128.10
52-week range
122.90179.32
Volume
547.10K0.77×
Mkt cap
9.55B
P/E ttm
21.58
Fwd P/E
17.24
EPS ttm
5.87
Div yield
0.64%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−29.34%
WMS market-implied price distribution
WMS Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 43.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 126.70
Expected price
126.27
forward 126.75
68% range
110–144
−13.4% / +13.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 93.45 | −26.2% |
| 16% | 109.71 | −13.4% |
| 25% | 115.50 | −8.8% |
| 50% (median) | 126.46 | −0.2% |
| 75% | 137.60 | +8.6% |
| 84% | 143.62 | +13.4% |
| 95% | 158.86 | +25.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (133.04) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (139.37) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (120.37) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (114.03) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 0.9× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.