WM
Waste Management, Inc.Pre-market211.14+2.31 +1.11%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 212.25 +0.53%
Open
209.72
Prev close
208.83
Day range
208.49211.83
52-week range
194.11248.13
Volume
1.69M0.81×
Mkt cap
84.40B
P/E ttm
30.25
Fwd P/E
23.24
EPS ttm
6.98
Div yield
1.79%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−14.91%
WM market-implied price distribution
WM Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 28.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 211.14
Expected price
210.16
forward 209.97
68% range
193–227
−8.4% / +7.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 182.90 | −13.4% |
| 16% | 193.35 | −8.4% |
| 25% | 198.33 | −6.1% |
| 50% (median) | 208.99 | −1.0% |
| 75% | 220.53 | +4.4% |
| 84% | 226.62 | +7.3% |
| 95% | 241.40 | +14.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (221.70) | 23% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (232.25) | 10% |
| Down 5% or more (200.58) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (190.03) | 11% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 11%, 0.8× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.