Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
46.67
−35.6%
16%
64.12
−11.6%
25%
67.74
−6.6%
50% (median)
72.75
+0.3%
75%
77.11
+6.3%
84%
79.41
+9.5%
95%
86.04
+18.7%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (76.14)
30%
Up 10% or more (79.76)
15%
Down 5% or more (68.88)
29%
Down 10% or more (65.26)
18%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.1× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.