WAY
Waystar Holding Corp.Open26.93+0.28 +1.05%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 12:41 ET · 15m delay
Open
26.83
Prev close
26.65
Day range
26.6527.69
52-week range
17.2640.35
Volume
496.25K0.21×
Mkt cap
5.16B
P/E ttm
38.47
Fwd P/E
14.33
EPS ttm
0.7000
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−33.26%
WAY market-implied price distribution
WAY Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 51.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 26.93
Expected price
27.02
forward 27.04
68% range
23–31
−15.5% / +16.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 19.35 | −28.1% |
| 16% | 22.75 | −15.5% |
| 25% | 24.12 | −10.4% |
| 50% (median) | 26.85 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 29.74 | +10.4% |
| 84% | 31.31 | +16.3% |
| 95% | 35.69 | +32.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (28.28) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (29.62) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (25.58) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (24.24) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 0.9× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.