VSTM
Verastem, Inc.Closed7.45−0.80 −9.70%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 7.53 +1.04%
Open
8.20
Prev close
8.25
Day range
7.458.20
52-week range
3.4310.82
Volume
3.39M1.50×
Mkt cap
674.70M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-9.93
EPS ttm
-2.45
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−31.15%
VSTM market-implied price distribution
VSTM Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 171.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
40%
spot 7.45
Expected price
7.40
forward 7.31
68% range
3–10
−61.3% / +39.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 1.70 | −77.2% |
| 16% | 2.89 | −61.3% |
| 25% | 3.79 | −49.2% |
| 50% (median) | 6.62 | −11.2% |
| 75% | 8.90 | +19.4% |
| 84% | 10.36 | +39.0% |
| 95% | 17.22 | +131.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (7.82) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (8.20) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (7.08) | 56% |
| Down 10% or more (6.71) | 51% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 51%, 0.9× the 55% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.