VST
Vistra Corp.Open160.70+2.57 +1.63%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
153.51
Prev close
158.13
Day range
153.51161.35
52-week range
132.66217.10
Volume
1.14M0.21×
Mkt cap
53.94B
P/E ttm
27.10
Fwd P/E
15.43
EPS ttm
5.93
Div yield
0.58%
Earnings
Nov 6, 2026
From 52w high
−25.98%
VST market-implied price distribution
VST Price at Expiry
38 OTM quotes · ATM IV 52.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 160.70
Expected price
159.72
forward 159.73
68% range
137–183
−14.8% / +13.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 117.94 | −26.6% |
| 16% | 136.85 | −14.8% |
| 25% | 144.32 | −10.2% |
| 50% (median) | 159.03 | −1.0% |
| 75% | 174.38 | +8.5% |
| 84% | 182.73 | +13.7% |
| 95% | 206.18 | +28.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (168.74) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (176.77) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (152.67) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (144.63) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.9× the 29% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.