Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
72.26
−26.4%
16%
88.85
−9.5%
25%
93.47
−4.8%
50% (median)
100.62
+2.5%
75%
105.01
+6.9%
84%
106.81
+8.8%
95%
112.92
+15.0%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (103.11)
38%
Up 10% or more (108.02)
13%
Down 5% or more (93.29)
25%
Down 10% or more (88.38)
15%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 1.0× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.