VIPS
Vipshop Holdings LimitedAfter hours12.88+0.02 +0.16%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 12.88 −0.04%
Open
12.93
Prev close
12.86
Day range
12.7513.02
52-week range
12.0220.49
Volume
2.10M0.79×
Mkt cap
6.12B
P/E ttm
4.34
Fwd P/E
5.12
EPS ttm
2.97
Div yield
4.82%
Earnings
Aug 25, 2026
From 52w high
−37.14%
VIPS market-implied price distribution
VIPS Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 39.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 12.88
Expected price
12.74
forward 12.86
68% range
11–14
−15.6% / +9.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.90 | −30.9% |
| 16% | 10.87 | −15.6% |
| 25% | 11.79 | −8.5% |
| 50% (median) | 12.86 | −0.2% |
| 75% | 13.71 | +6.5% |
| 84% | 14.15 | +9.9% |
| 95% | 15.45 | +20.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (13.52) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (14.17) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (12.24) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (11.59) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 1.0× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.