Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
23.37
−46.5%
16%
38.66
−11.5%
25%
40.93
−6.3%
50% (median)
44.03
+0.8%
75%
46.97
+7.5%
84%
48.93
+12.0%
95%
63.02
+44.3%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (45.87)
33%
Up 10% or more (48.05)
19%
Down 5% or more (41.50)
28%
Down 10% or more (39.32)
18%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 0.7× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.