Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.45 | −38.3% |
| 16% | 11.20 | −18.2% |
| 25% | 12.10 | −11.7% |
| 50% (median) | 13.66 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 15.24 | +11.2% |
| 84% | 16.15 | +17.9% |
| 95% | 19.37 | +41.4% |
| Up 5% or more (14.39) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (15.07) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (13.01) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (12.33) | 28% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 28%, 0.9× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.