VAL
Valaris LimitedOpen85.72+0.77 +0.91%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:17 ET · 20m delay
Open
86.10
Prev close
84.94
Day range
85.4387.52
52-week range
47.37114.12
Volume
201.75K0.19×
Mkt cap
5.95B
P/E ttm
6.46
Fwd P/E
12.14
EPS ttm
13.26
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−24.89%
VAL market-implied price distribution
VAL Price at Expiry
29 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
42%
spot 85.72
Expected price
87.76
forward 86.76
68% range
74–98
−14.2% / +14.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 64.12 | −25.2% |
| 16% | 73.51 | −14.2% |
| 25% | 76.82 | −10.4% |
| 50% (median) | 83.57 | −2.5% |
| 75% | 92.08 | +7.4% |
| 84% | 98.08 | +14.4% |
| 95% | 141.66 | +65.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (90.00) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (94.29) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (81.43) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (77.14) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 1.1× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.