VACN.SW
VAT GROUP NOpenVACN.SW discounted cash flow valuation
VACN.SW Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 45.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 12.47% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CHF 3.66B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (51% of EV) | CHF 3.82B |
| Enterprise value | CHF 7.49B |
| + Cash & investments | CHF 116.55M |
| − Total debt | −CHF 396.90M |
| Equity value | CHF 7.21B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 29.97M |
| Value per share | CHF 240.46 |
| Market cap | CHF 19.36B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.48 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 12.64% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 16.7% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 2.0% |
| WACC | 12.47% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.47% | 289.06 | 302.48 | 317.58 | 334.70 | 354.27 |
| 11.47% | 252.95 | 263.18 | 274.55 | 287.26 | 301.55 |
| 12.47% | 223.72 | 231.69 | 240.46 | 250.15 | 260.92 |
| 13.47% | 199.63 | 205.95 | 212.85 | 220.41 | 228.72 |
| 14.47% | 179.47 | 184.57 | 190.08 | 196.08 | 202.62 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | CHF 230.87M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | CHF 288.58M | 0.889 | CHF 256.59M |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | CHF 360.73M | 0.791 | CHF 285.17M |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | CHF 450.91M | 0.703 | CHF 316.94M |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | CHF 563.64M | 0.625 | CHF 352.25M |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | CHF 704.55M | 0.556 | CHF 391.50M |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | CHF 848.98M | 0.494 | CHF 419.45M |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | CHF 984.82M | 0.439 | CHF 432.61M |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | CHF 1.10B | 0.391 | CHF 428.88M |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | CHF 1.17B | 0.347 | CHF 408.02M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CHF 1.20B | 0.309 | CHF 371.85M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.