USB
U.S. BancorpPre-market57.42+0.34 +0.60%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 57.71 +0.51%
Open
57.22
Prev close
57.08
Day range
57.0857.64
52-week range
45.0266.08
Volume
5.42M0.72×
Mkt cap
89.46B
P/E ttm
11.53
Fwd P/E
9.89
EPS ttm
4.98
Div yield
3.76%
Earnings
Oct 15, 2026
From 52w high
−13.11%
USB market-implied price distribution
USB Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 25.6%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 57.42
Expected price
57.36
forward 57.59
68% range
53–62
−8.4% / +8.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 47.62 | −17.1% |
| 16% | 52.61 | −8.4% |
| 25% | 54.49 | −5.1% |
| 50% (median) | 57.69 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 60.58 | +5.5% |
| 84% | 62.00 | +8.0% |
| 95% | 65.39 | +13.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (60.29) | 27% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (63.16) | 11% |
| Down 5% or more (54.55) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (51.68) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 1.6× the 8.0% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.