USAS
Americas Gold and Silver CorporOpen4.04−0.16 −3.93%USD
NYSE American · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET
Open
4.21
Prev close
4.20
Day range
3.974.22
52-week range
3.5210.50
Volume
2.79M0.66×
Mkt cap
1.36B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
12.54
EPS ttm
-0.1900
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 14, 2026
From 52w high
−61.57%
USAS market-implied price distribution
USAS Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 77.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 4.04
Expected price
4.02
forward 4.05
68% range
3–5
−24.8% / +21.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 1.84 | −54.4% |
| 16% | 3.03 | −24.8% |
| 25% | 3.38 | −16.3% |
| 50% (median) | 3.96 | −1.8% |
| 75% | 4.56 | +13.0% |
| 84% | 4.90 | +21.5% |
| 95% | 6.08 | +50.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (4.24) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (4.44) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (3.83) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (3.63) | 35% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 35%, 0.9× the 38% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.