URA
Global X Uranium ETFOpen37.39−0.33 −0.87%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET
Open
37.58
Prev close
37.72
Day range
37.2237.64
52-week range
37.1862.28
Volume
655.97K0.20×
P/E ttm
22.32
EPS ttm
1.68
Div yield
5.21%
From 52w high
−39.96%
URA market-implied price distribution
URA Price at Expiry
24 OTM quotes · ATM IV 43.2%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 37.40
Expected price
37.61
forward 37.64
68% range
33–42
−12.0% / +12.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.94 | −22.6% |
| 16% | 32.90 | −12.0% |
| 25% | 34.47 | −7.8% |
| 50% (median) | 37.41 | +0.0% |
| 75% | 40.41 | +8.0% |
| 84% | 42.03 | +12.4% |
| 95% | 46.62 | +24.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (39.27) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (41.14) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (35.53) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (33.66) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.0× the 21% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.