UMAC
Unusual Machines, Inc.Open18.21−1.24 −6.35%USD
NYSE American · as of Oct 14, 12:51 ET
Open
18.86
Prev close
19.44
Day range
18.0219.29
52-week range
7.2534.93
Volume
1.82M0.51×
Mkt cap
909.46M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-56.30
EPS ttm
-0.2500
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−47.88%
UMAC market-implied price distribution
UMAC Price at Expiry
29 OTM quotes · ATM IV 97.8%
Days to expiry
30
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 18.21
Expected price
18.45
forward 18.24
68% range
13–23
−26.6% / +25.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 11.15 | −38.8% |
| 16% | 13.37 | −26.6% |
| 25% | 14.62 | −19.7% |
| 50% (median) | 17.60 | −3.4% |
| 75% | 20.90 | +14.8% |
| 84% | 22.88 | +25.6% |
| 95% | 29.04 | +59.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (19.12) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (20.03) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (17.30) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (16.39) | 39% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 1.0× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.