UFO
Procure Space ETFAfter hours40.74−0.77 −1.85%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
41.17
Prev close
41.51
Day range
40.4041.17
52-week range
30.8968.21
Volume
266.16K0.80×
P/E ttm
23.55
EPS ttm
1.73
Div yield
0.36%
From 52w high
−40.27%
UFO market-implied price distribution
UFO Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 33.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 40.74
Expected price
41.21
forward 40.90
68% range
36–45
−10.9% / +10.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 32.34 | −20.6% |
| 16% | 36.30 | −10.9% |
| 25% | 38.06 | −6.6% |
| 50% (median) | 40.61 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 43.21 | +6.1% |
| 84% | 44.99 | +10.4% |
| 95% | 54.32 | +33.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (42.78) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (44.81) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (38.70) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (36.67) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 1.0× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.