UBRL
GraniteShares 2x Long UBER DailClosed13.03−0.78 −5.65%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 13.01 −0.15%
Open
13.53
Prev close
13.81
Day range
12.8013.79
52-week range
12.2236.54
Volume
175.06K0.74×
Div yield
0.00%
From 52w high
−64.34%
UBRL market-implied price distribution
UBRL Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 86.2%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 13.03
Expected price
13.17
forward 13.03
68% range
10–16
−25.0% / +24.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.24 | −36.8% |
| 16% | 9.77 | −25.0% |
| 25% | 10.74 | −17.5% |
| 50% (median) | 12.58 | −3.5% |
| 75% | 14.83 | +13.8% |
| 84% | 16.24 | +24.6% |
| 95% | 20.53 | +57.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (13.68) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (14.33) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (12.38) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (11.73) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 0.9× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.