TUR
iShares MSCI Turkey ETFClosed34.10+0.29 +0.86%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
33.97
Prev close
33.81
Day range
33.9734.10
52-week range
31.7243.98
Volume
40.40K0.27×
P/E ttm
11.71
EPS ttm
2.91
Div yield
2.46%
From 52w high
−22.46%
TUR market-implied price distribution
TUR Price at Expiry
23 OTM quotes · ATM IV 39.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 34.10
Expected price
34.14
forward 34.34
68% range
29–38
−14.1% / +10.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 21.89 | −35.8% |
| 16% | 29.30 | −14.1% |
| 25% | 31.83 | −6.7% |
| 50% (median) | 34.45 | +1.0% |
| 75% | 36.51 | +7.1% |
| 84% | 37.65 | +10.4% |
| 95% | 42.68 | +25.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (35.81) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (37.51) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (32.40) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (30.69) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.0× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.