TSMG
Leverage Shares 2X Long TSM DaiClosed38.56−2.77 −6.71%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 37.24 −3.41%
Open
39.96
Prev close
41.33
Day range
38.1640.34
52-week range
20.7351.24
Volume
51.93K0.83×
Div yield
6.24%
From 52w high
−24.75%
TSMG market-implied price distribution
TSMG Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 65.4%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 38.56
Expected price
39.42
forward 38.82
68% range
31–46
−20.1% / +19.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 25.57 | −33.7% |
| 16% | 30.80 | −20.1% |
| 25% | 33.51 | −13.1% |
| 50% (median) | 37.85 | −1.8% |
| 75% | 42.69 | +10.7% |
| 84% | 46.21 | +19.8% |
| 95% | 61.13 | +58.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (40.48) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (42.41) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (36.63) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (34.70) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 0.9× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.