TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturPre-market444.35−8.96 −1.98%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 441.50 −0.70%
Open
453.55
Prev close
453.31
Day range
444.35454.40
52-week range
266.82487.47
Volume
8.81M0.78×
Mkt cap
2.30T
P/E ttm
32.29
Fwd P/E
19.91
EPS ttm
13.76
Div yield
0.85%
Earnings
Oct 15, 2026
From 52w high
−8.85%
TSM market-implied price distribution
TSM Price at Expiry
65 OTM quotes · ATM IV 32.5%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 444.35
Expected price
447.82
forward 447.38
68% range
407–488
−8.4% / +9.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 378.01 | −14.9% |
| 16% | 406.89 | −8.4% |
| 25% | 419.87 | −5.5% |
| 50% (median) | 446.39 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 473.82 | +6.6% |
| 84% | 487.98 | +9.8% |
| 95% | 521.70 | +17.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (466.57) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (488.79) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (422.13) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (399.92) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 0.9× the 13% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.