TSLS
Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X ETFOpen53.93+0.21 +0.39%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 11:17 ET · 15m delay
Open
54.64
Prev close
53.72
Day range
53.9354.64
52-week range
46.2069.83
Volume
37.81K0.12×
Div yield
2.74%
From 52w high
−22.77%
TSLS market-implied price distribution
TSLS Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 41.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 53.93
Expected price
54.30
forward 54.16
68% range
47–61
−12.8% / +13.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 42.94 | −20.4% |
| 16% | 47.02 | −12.8% |
| 25% | 49.18 | −8.8% |
| 50% (median) | 53.92 | −0.0% |
| 75% | 58.50 | +8.5% |
| 84% | 61.08 | +13.3% |
| 95% | 67.67 | +25.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (56.63) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (59.32) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (51.23) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (48.54) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 1.0× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.