TSAT
Telesat CorporationAfter hours45.72+0.54 +1.20%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 45.72 0.00%
Open
44.83
Prev close
45.18
Day range
44.6546.71
52-week range
23.0161.54
Volume
81.34K0.44×
Mkt cap
2.35B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-6.27
EPS ttm
-18.17
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−25.71%
TSAT market-implied price distribution
TSAT Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 77.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 45.72
Expected price
45.75
forward 45.55
68% range
34–56
−24.6% / +22.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 27.46 | −39.9% |
| 16% | 34.47 | −24.6% |
| 25% | 37.63 | −17.7% |
| 50% (median) | 44.09 | −3.6% |
| 75% | 51.55 | +12.7% |
| 84% | 56.05 | +22.6% |
| 95% | 71.58 | +56.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (48.01) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (50.29) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (43.43) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (41.15) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.