TPL
Texas Pacific Land CorporationPre-market365.32+4.34 +1.20%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
366.01
Prev close
360.98
Day range
363.20368.81
52-week range
269.23547.20
Volume
212.97K0.60×
Mkt cap
25.20B
P/E ttm
47.14
Fwd P/E
5.00
EPS ttm
7.75
Div yield
0.66%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−33.24%
TPL market-implied price distribution
TPL Price at Expiry
27 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 365.32
Expected price
366.09
forward 366.65
68% range
313–418
−14.2% / +14.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 273.74 | −25.1% |
| 16% | 313.44 | −14.2% |
| 25% | 330.29 | −9.6% |
| 50% (median) | 364.39 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 399.72 | +9.4% |
| 84% | 418.03 | +14.4% |
| 95% | 462.14 | +26.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (383.59) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (401.85) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (347.05) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (328.79) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 1.0× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.