TOU.TO
TOURMALINE OIL CORPClosedTOU.TO discounted cash flow valuation
TOU.TO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 21.8% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 12.8% in this model.
Model: 12.8% from analyst next-year revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.98% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CAD 5.28B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (67% of EV) | CAD 10.78B |
| Enterprise value | CAD 16.06B |
| + Cash & investments | CAD 0 |
| − Total debt | −CAD 1.32B |
| Equity value | CAD 14.74B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 388.60M |
| Value per share | CAD 37.93 |
| Market cap | CAD 25.13B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 0.67 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.18% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.34% |
| Tax rate | 23.6% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 5.0% |
| WACC | 7.98% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.98% | 51.89 | 58.62 | 67.61 | 80.22 | 99.20 |
| 6.98% | 40.13 | 44.08 | 49.02 | 55.38 | 63.87 |
| 7.98% | 32.33 | 34.88 | 37.93 | 41.66 | 46.33 |
| 8.98% | 26.79 | 28.54 | 30.57 | 32.98 | 35.87 |
| 9.98% | 22.66 | 23.91 | 25.34 | 27.00 | 28.92 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CAD 440.87M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 12.8% | CAD 497.30M | 0.926 | CAD 460.55M |
| Year 2 | 12.8% | CAD 560.95M | 0.858 | CAD 481.11M |
| Year 3 | 12.8% | CAD 632.76M | 0.794 | CAD 502.58M |
| Year 4 | 12.8% | CAD 713.75M | 0.736 | CAD 525.01M |
| Year 5 | 12.8% | CAD 805.11M | 0.681 | CAD 548.45M |
| Year 6 | 10.8% | CAD 892.38M | 0.631 | CAD 562.98M |
| Year 7 | 8.9% | CAD 971.63M | 0.584 | CAD 567.67M |
| Year 8 | 6.9% | CAD 1.04B | 0.541 | CAD 562.10M |
| Year 9 | 5.0% | CAD 1.09B | 0.501 | CAD 546.38M |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | CAD 1.12B | 0.464 | CAD 521.18M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.