TOST
Toast, Inc.Open30.98−0.34 −1.10%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
31.33
Prev close
31.32
Day range
30.7931.75
52-week range
22.2639.73
Volume
4.01M0.44×
Mkt cap
17.90B
P/E ttm
39.21
Fwd P/E
17.60
EPS ttm
0.7900
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−22.03%
TOST market-implied price distribution
TOST Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 57.5%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 30.98
Expected price
31.05
forward 31.08
68% range
26–36
−16.9% / +16.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 22.03 | −28.9% |
| 16% | 25.74 | −16.9% |
| 25% | 27.48 | −11.3% |
| 50% (median) | 30.74 | −0.8% |
| 75% | 34.12 | +10.2% |
| 84% | 36.01 | +16.2% |
| 95% | 41.69 | +34.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (32.52) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (34.07) | 25% |
| Down 5% or more (29.43) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (27.88) | 28% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 28%, 1.0× the 29% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.