TM
Toyota Motor CorporationOpen187.87+3.15 +1.71%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:15 ET · 20m delay
Open
188.68
Prev close
184.72
Day range
187.75189.42
52-week range
166.10248.90
Volume
46.04K0.13×
Mkt cap
222.47B
P/E ttm
8.25
Fwd P/E
11.91
EPS ttm
22.76
Div yield
3.39%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−24.52%
TM market-implied price distribution
TM Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 22.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 187.87
Expected price
188.52
forward 189.49
68% range
176–202
−6.4% / +7.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 159.79 | −14.9% |
| 16% | 175.84 | −6.4% |
| 25% | 180.88 | −3.7% |
| 50% (median) | 189.79 | +1.0% |
| 75% | 198.03 | +5.4% |
| 84% | 202.10 | +7.6% |
| 95% | 211.53 | +12.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (197.26) | 27% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (206.66) | 9.2% |
| Down 5% or more (178.48) | 20% |
| Down 10% or more (169.08) | 9.1% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 9.1%, 1.4× the 6.6% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.