TLRY
Tilray Brands, Inc.Open3.21−0.06 −1.83%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 14, 11:26 ET · 15m delay
Open
3.24
Prev close
3.27
Day range
3.183.29
52-week range
3.1818.40
Volume
1.42M0.34×
Mkt cap
474.40M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-30.32
EPS ttm
-1.41
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 8, 2026
From 52w high
−82.55%
TLRY market-implied price distribution
TLRY Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 71.6%
Days to expiry
30
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 3.21
Expected price
3.29
forward 3.21
68% range
3–4
−21.2% / +17.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 2.08 | −35.1% |
| 16% | 2.53 | −21.2% |
| 25% | 2.79 | −13.1% |
| 50% (median) | 3.14 | −2.2% |
| 75% | 3.50 | +9.2% |
| 84% | 3.77 | +17.3% |
| 95% | 5.47 | +70.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (3.37) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (3.53) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (3.05) | 43% |
| Down 10% or more (2.89) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 0.9× the 34% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.