TLN
Talen Energy CorporationOpen384.88+5.11 +1.35%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 15m delay
Open
370.75
Prev close
379.77
Day range
368.38386.19
52-week range
279.77449.84
Volume
575.35K0.64×
Mkt cap
18.20B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
12.51
EPS ttm
-4.13
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−14.44%
TLN market-implied price distribution
TLN Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 60.4%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 384.88
Expected price
383.40
forward 385.59
68% range
318–448
−17.4% / +16.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 242.71 | −36.9% |
| 16% | 317.84 | −17.4% |
| 25% | 340.97 | −11.4% |
| 50% (median) | 383.48 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 425.74 | +10.6% |
| 84% | 448.15 | +16.4% |
| 95% | 508.85 | +32.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (404.12) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (423.37) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (365.64) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (346.39) | 28% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 28%, 0.9× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.