TLC.AX
LOTTERY FPO [TLC]OpenTLC.AX discounted cash flow valuation
TLC.AX Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 13.4% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 5.3% in this model.
Model: 5.3% from analyst next-year revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.38% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | AUD 2.82B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (67% of EV) | AUD 5.75B |
| Enterprise value | AUD 8.57B |
| + Cash & investments | AUD 581.10M |
| − Total debt | −AUD 2.50B |
| Equity value | AUD 6.65B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 2.23B |
| Value per share | AUD 2.99 |
| Market cap | AUD 11.82B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 0.67 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.18% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.27% |
| Tax rate | 31.6% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 17.5% |
| WACC | 7.38% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.38% | 4.42 | 5.19 | 6.28 | 7.95 | 10.84 |
| 6.38% | 3.19 | 3.61 | 4.15 | 4.87 | 5.91 |
| 7.38% | 2.42 | 2.67 | 2.99 | 3.38 | 3.89 |
| 8.38% | 1.89 | 2.06 | 2.26 | 2.50 | 2.80 |
| 9.38% | 1.51 | 1.63 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 2.11 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | AUD 317.90M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.3% | AUD 334.75M | 0.931 | AUD 311.74M |
| Year 2 | 5.3% | AUD 352.49M | 0.867 | AUD 305.70M |
| Year 3 | 5.3% | AUD 371.17M | 0.808 | AUD 299.78M |
| Year 4 | 5.3% | AUD 390.84M | 0.752 | AUD 293.98M |
| Year 5 | 5.3% | AUD 411.56M | 0.700 | AUD 288.28M |
| Year 6 | 4.8% | AUD 431.48M | 0.652 | AUD 281.46M |
| Year 7 | 4.4% | AUD 450.38M | 0.607 | AUD 273.60M |
| Year 8 | 3.9% | AUD 468.03M | 0.566 | AUD 264.78M |
| Year 9 | 3.5% | AUD 484.23M | 0.527 | AUD 255.12M |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | AUD 498.75M | 0.491 | AUD 244.71M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.