THYAO.IS
TURK HAVA YOLLARIOpenTHYAO.IS discounted cash flow valuation
THYAO.IS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -9.2% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 12.0% in this model.
Model: 12.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 5.39% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | TRY 830.80B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (79% of EV) | TRY 3.15T |
| Enterprise value | TRY 3.98T |
| + Cash & investments | TRY 311.59B |
| − Total debt | −TRY 967.70B |
| Equity value | TRY 3.32T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 1.37B |
| Value per share | TRY 2,421.09 |
| Market cap | TRY 388.01B |
USD statements converted at 49.39 TRY.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 14.5% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 71.4% |
| WACC | 5.39% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.39% | 4,281.80 | 5,862.97 | 9,220.50 | — | — |
| 4.39% | 2,585.11 | 3,152.55 | 4,020.11 | 5,511.68 | 8,678.96 |
| 5.39% | 1,762.79 | 2,043.42 | 2,421.09 | 2,956.71 | 3,775.63 |
| 6.39% | 1,278.31 | 1,441.19 | 1,645.91 | 1,910.97 | 2,267.69 |
| 7.39% | 959.50 | 1,063.64 | 1,189.05 | 1,343.00 | 1,536.47 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | TRY 62.82B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 12.0% | TRY 70.36B | 0.949 | TRY 66.76B |
| Year 2 | 12.0% | TRY 78.80B | 0.900 | TRY 70.95B |
| Year 3 | 12.0% | TRY 88.26B | 0.854 | TRY 75.40B |
| Year 4 | 12.0% | TRY 98.85B | 0.811 | TRY 80.13B |
| Year 5 | 12.0% | TRY 110.71B | 0.769 | TRY 85.15B |
| Year 6 | 10.1% | TRY 121.89B | 0.730 | TRY 88.96B |
| Year 7 | 8.2% | TRY 131.89B | 0.692 | TRY 91.33B |
| Year 8 | 6.3% | TRY 140.20B | 0.657 | TRY 92.12B |
| Year 9 | 4.4% | TRY 146.37B | 0.623 | TRY 91.25B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | TRY 150.03B | 0.592 | TRY 88.75B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.