TH
Target Hospitality Corp.Open18.63−0.22 −1.14%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 15m delay
Open
18.77
Prev close
18.84
Day range
18.5718.96
52-week range
5.9721.76
Volume
139.51K0.08×
Mkt cap
1.82B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
20.40
EPS ttm
-0.3800
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 10, 2026
From 52w high
−14.41%
TH market-implied price distribution
TH Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 67.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 18.63
Expected price
18.82
forward 18.81
68% range
15–23
−20.5% / +22.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 12.84 | −31.0% |
| 16% | 14.80 | −20.5% |
| 25% | 15.87 | −14.8% |
| 50% (median) | 18.22 | −2.2% |
| 75% | 21.20 | +13.8% |
| 84% | 22.84 | +22.7% |
| 95% | 26.78 | +43.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (19.56) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (20.49) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (17.69) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (16.76) | 34% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 34%, 1.0× the 34% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.