TGLS
Tecnoglass Holdings Inc.Open38.22+0.29 +0.76%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:07 ET · 20m delay
Open
38.34
Prev close
37.93
Day range
37.9938.64
52-week range
34.0565.33
Volume
9.83K0.03×
Mkt cap
1.70B
P/E ttm
13.36
Fwd P/E
11.23
EPS ttm
2.86
Div yield
1.58%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−41.50%
TGLS market-implied price distribution
TGLS Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 53.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 38.22
Expected price
38.70
forward 38.84
68% range
32–44
−16.3% / +16.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 20.53 | −46.3% |
| 16% | 32.00 | −16.3% |
| 25% | 34.64 | −9.4% |
| 50% (median) | 38.54 | +0.8% |
| 75% | 42.23 | +10.5% |
| 84% | 44.37 | +16.1% |
| 95% | 53.48 | +39.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (40.13) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (42.04) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (36.31) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (34.40) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 0.9× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.