NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 124.44+0.15%
Open
125.64
Prev close
125.70
Day range
123.05126.56
52-week range
100.18145.00
Volume
552.37K0.83×
Mkt cap
5.27B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
11.37
EPS ttm
-8.48
Div yield
1.08%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−14.18%
TFX market-implied price distribution
ODDS
TFX Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 48.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 124.44
Expected price
124.66
forward 124.97
68% range
105–144
−15.6% / +15.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
94.17
−24.3%
16%
104.97
−15.6%
25%
111.56
−10.4%
50% (median)
123.50
−0.8%
75%
136.69
+9.8%
84%
143.87
+15.6%
95%
159.55
+28.2%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (130.66)
34%
Up 10% or more (136.88)
25%
Down 5% or more (118.22)
38%
Down 10% or more (112.00)
26%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 1.0× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.