TFPM.TO
TRIPLE FLAG PRECIOUS METALS CORClosedTFPM.TO discounted cash flow valuation
TFPM.TO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 8.9% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 13.4% in this model.
Model: 13.4% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.58% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CAD 3.82B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (67% of EV) | CAD 7.74B |
| Enterprise value | CAD 11.56B |
| + Cash & investments | CAD 49.94M |
| − Total debt | −CAD 336.14M |
| Equity value | CAD 11.27B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 206.00M |
| Value per share | CAD 54.73 |
| Market cap | CAD 8.69B |
USD statements converted at 1.423 CAD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.69% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.19% |
| Tax rate | 10.9% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 3.7% |
| WACC | 7.58% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.58% | 73.44 | 82.30 | 94.03 | 110.32 | 134.43 |
| 6.58% | 57.74 | 62.99 | 69.54 | 77.91 | 88.99 |
| 7.58% | 47.24 | 50.65 | 54.73 | 59.70 | 65.88 |
| 8.58% | 39.75 | 42.10 | 44.83 | 48.06 | 51.91 |
| 9.58% | 34.14 | 35.83 | 37.76 | 39.98 | 42.57 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CAD 305.45M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.4% | CAD 346.38M | 0.930 | CAD 321.98M |
| Year 2 | 13.4% | CAD 392.80M | 0.864 | CAD 339.39M |
| Year 3 | 13.4% | CAD 445.43M | 0.803 | CAD 357.75M |
| Year 4 | 13.4% | CAD 505.12M | 0.747 | CAD 377.11M |
| Year 5 | 13.4% | CAD 572.80M | 0.694 | CAD 397.51M |
| Year 6 | 11.2% | CAD 637.07M | 0.645 | CAD 410.96M |
| Year 7 | 9.0% | CAD 694.66M | 0.600 | CAD 416.54M |
| Year 8 | 6.9% | CAD 742.32M | 0.557 | CAD 413.75M |
| Year 9 | 4.7% | CAD 777.06M | 0.518 | CAD 402.60M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CAD 796.49M | 0.482 | CAD 383.59M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.