TFII
TFI International Inc.Open111.52−1.29 −1.14%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:10 ET · 20m delay
Open
112.45
Prev close
112.81
Day range
111.31114.06
52-week range
80.63167.69
Volume
17.49K0.06×
Mkt cap
9.17B
P/E ttm
27.47
Fwd P/E
14.28
EPS ttm
4.06
Div yield
1.67%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−33.50%
TFII market-implied price distribution
TFII Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 38.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 111.52
Expected price
112.78
forward 112.00
68% range
98–126
−11.7% / +12.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 87.81 | −21.3% |
| 16% | 98.43 | −11.7% |
| 25% | 103.08 | −7.6% |
| 50% (median) | 110.72 | −0.7% |
| 75% | 119.37 | +7.0% |
| 84% | 125.91 | +12.9% |
| 95% | 146.69 | +31.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (117.10) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (122.67) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (105.94) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (100.37) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 0.9× the 21% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.