TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.Closed41.78+0.08 +0.19%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 41.78 0.00%
Open
42.00
Prev close
41.70
Day range
41.3542.01
52-week range
35.7346.36
Volume
97.20K0.88×
Mkt cap
695.84M
P/E ttm
10.39
Fwd P/E
9.32
EPS ttm
4.02
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 21, 2026
From 52w high
−9.87%
TCBX market-implied price distribution
TCBX Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 46.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
58%
spot 41.78
Expected price
42.76
forward 43.32
68% range
37–49
−11.2% / +17.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 27.56 | −34.0% |
| 16% | 37.10 | −11.2% |
| 25% | 39.38 | −5.7% |
| 50% (median) | 42.79 | +2.4% |
| 75% | 46.45 | +11.2% |
| 84% | 49.16 | +17.7% |
| 95% | 55.86 | +33.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (43.87) | 41% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (45.96) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (39.69) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (37.60) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.9× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.