TAP
Molson Coors Beverage CompanyOpen38.45+0.31 +0.81%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 12:42 ET · 20m delay
Open
38.55
Prev close
38.14
Day range
37.9138.85
52-week range
35.5254.82
Volume
529.30K0.14×
Mkt cap
7.17B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
7.95
EPS ttm
-11.64
Div yield
5.03%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−29.86%
TAP market-implied price distribution
TAP Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 35.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 38.45
Expected price
38.37
forward 38.46
68% range
34–43
−10.9% / +10.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 30.29 | −21.2% |
| 16% | 34.25 | −10.9% |
| 25% | 35.71 | −7.1% |
| 50% (median) | 38.46 | +0.0% |
| 75% | 41.17 | +7.1% |
| 84% | 42.57 | +10.7% |
| 95% | 46.12 | +20.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (40.37) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (42.30) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (36.53) | 32% |
| Down 10% or more (34.61) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 0.9× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.