TAL
TAL Education GroupPre-market12.72−0.14 −1.09%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 12.74 +0.16%
Open
12.60
Prev close
12.86
Day range
12.3512.90
52-week range
8.8813.37
Volume
3.75M0.82×
Mkt cap
7.06B
P/E ttm
7.95
Fwd P/E
10.85
EPS ttm
1.60
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−4.86%
TAL market-implied price distribution
TAL Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 46.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 12.72
Expected price
12.79
forward 12.65
68% range
11–14
−15.2% / +13.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 6.60 | −48.1% |
| 16% | 10.78 | −15.2% |
| 25% | 11.51 | −9.5% |
| 50% (median) | 12.60 | −0.9% |
| 75% | 13.69 | +7.6% |
| 84% | 14.39 | +13.2% |
| 95% | 20.47 | +60.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (13.36) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.99) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (12.08) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (11.45) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 0.9× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.